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Finding your macro article

Unit 3: Macroeconomics

Choosing your article

Your article must be from the macroeconomics unit, not microeconomics, not international economics, and not development economics. A macroeconomics article will focus on economy-wide indicators such as inflation, unemployment, GDP growth, or government and central bank policy. If the article is primarily about trade, exchange rates, or an individual market, it is not the right unit.

The sweet spot is an article with enough detail to analyse: a changing indicator, a cause, and a policy response, but focused enough that you are not trying to cover five different things at once. You are looking for one clear economic story with some room for evaluation, not a survey of the entire global economy. Your diagrams must come from macroeconomic models, AD/AS in either the Keynesian or neoclassical version.

You need two diagrams: look for two moments

Your commentary requires two diagrams, which means the article needs to contain two separate economic moments worth graphing. The clearest structure is an initial event and a response: for example, a supply shock that shifts SRAS, followed by a central bank decision that shifts AD. Both moments must be present in the article. If the article only describes one thing (say, that inflation is rising) without any policy dimension or consequence, you will only have material for one diagram.

The article does not need to spell out the economics for you. But it must contain enough facts, causes, and policy context for you to do that yourself.

Topic areas to look for

Search for articles in these areas. They consistently produce strong commentaries.

• Monetary policy: central bank interest rate decisions and responses to changing economic conditions, including debates over whether to raise, hold, or cut rates.
• Inflation: rising or falling inflation rates, debates over the cause such as demand-pull versus cost-push, and the policy implications that follow.
• Fiscal policy: government spending programmes, infrastructure investment, budget deficits, debate over whether stimulus will work.
• Employment and growth: jobs data linked to central bank decisions, wage growth linked to inflation concerns.

Do not choose articles that are only about a single company, a stock market movement with no economic cause, or a price change in one product with no wider macroeconomic link.

The checklist: use this to screen every article you find

Ask these four questions. A strong article answers yes to all four.

1. Is there a macroeconomic indicator changing?

   For example: unemployment rising or falling, inflation increasing, GDP growth slowing, wages rising. If the article is just a description of a company, a product, or a single price change with no link to the wider economy, move on.

2. Is there a reason or cause explained in the article?

   The article should tell you why the indicator is changing, not just that it is changing. For example: inflation is rising because of an energy price shock, or employment is growing because consumer spending has recovered. If the article gives you no cause, you will not be able to draw a diagram correctly.

3. Is there a policy response, or a likely policy response?

   For example: a central bank raising or holding interest rates, a government increasing spending, a debate over what policymakers should do. If there is no policy angle at all, your commentary will be descriptive rather than analytical.

4. Is there uncertainty, a trade-off, or a debate?

   For example: there is a conflict between two objectives such as growth and inflation, or the policy has already had mixed results. Be careful here. You want an article that leaves room for your own evaluation, not one that simply reports what economists think. The presence of some uncertainty in the article is helpful; a full debate already written out for you is less so.

Two example strong articles

The following two articles have already been checked against the checklist. Use them as a benchmark for what you are looking for.

Article 1: "European Central Bank keeps rates on hold in the face of inflation threat" (CNBC, April 2026)

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/30/european-central-bank-april-2026-rate-decision-inflation-stagflation-risk-iran-war.html

1. Indicator changing: Eurozone inflation jumped to 3% in April.
2. Cause: An energy price shock following the conflict in Iran. This is cost-push inflation originating outside the eurozone.
3. Policy response: The ECB held its benchmark rate at 2% despite the surge, with a possible hike signalled for June.
4. Uncertainty or trade-off: Raising rates would help control inflation but risks pushing an already fragile economy into slower growth. This is a classic conflict between two macroeconomic objectives.

Models: Two AD/AS diagrams. The first shows the energy shock shifting SRAS left. The price level rises and output falls. AD and LRAS do not move in this diagram. The second shows a potential monetary policy response. If the ECB raises rates, AD shifts left, bringing the price level down but reducing output further. SRAS and LRAS do not move in this diagram.

Article 2: "May jobs report comes as inflation squeezes economy" (NBC News, June 2026)

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/may-jobs-report-inflation-rcna348020

1. Indicator changing: The US economy added 172,000 jobs in May, with unemployment holding steady at 4.3%.
2. Cause: Broad-based hiring across sectors, with job growth picking up beyond healthcare into wider industries.
3. Policy response: The strong jobs data makes it less likely the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the near term, with the Fed focused on controlling inflation.
4. Uncertainty or trade-off: Wages are rising at only 3.4% annually, lagging inflation, meaning real incomes are falling even as employment grows. The Fed must weigh a resilient labour market against persistent inflation. Holding rates risks prolonging the squeeze on real wages; cutting rates risks adding further inflationary pressure.

Models: Two AD/AS diagrams. The first shows employment growth supporting household income and consumer spending, shifting AD right. Output rises and there is upward pressure on the price level. SRAS and LRAS do not move in this diagram. The second shows the Fed holding rates steady. AD does not shift in this diagram. Students can evaluate whether this is the right response given that real wages are falling despite strong nominal employment growth.

Recommended sources

Reuters, BBC News Economics, CNBC Economics, Associated Press Economics, The Economist (so long as it doesn't have the analysis done for you).

The school has subscriptions to the Financial Times and the New York Times. You can log in using your school credentials. Both are excellent sources for this task and are used by IB students worldwide.

Your task

Find two candidate articles from the topic areas above. For each one:

1. Write four bullet points answering the checklist questions:
   • What macroeconomic indicator is changing in this article?
   • What reason or cause does the article give for this?
   • What is the policy response, or likely policy response?
   • What uncertainty, trade-off, or debate does the article contain?
2. Draw at least two AD/AS diagrams (or another model if suitable) that reflect the economic events in your article. Label all curves, AD, SRAS, LRAS (neoclassical) or AD, AS (Keynesian), and mark the initial and new equilibrium. That is, draw them well. Write two or three sentences explaining what your diagram shows.

Bring both articles, your bullet points, and your diagrams to the first lesson back.